1st December 2017

Brexit to hit its supporters hardest; and UK needs to forget hostility to the European Court of Justice


The Federal Trust is today publishing two new studies by its Senior Fellows Dr Andrew Black and Dr Andrew Blick (sic). Dr Black uses input/output analysis to identify those sectors of the British economy most vulnerable to a “hard Brexit.” He concludes that the damage caused to the British economy by a hard Brexit will fall heaviest on regions that themselves voted for Brexit. Dr Blick warns that prejudice against the European Court of Justice may well prevent the British government from coming to a beneficial settlement in future trade negotiations with the EU.

Commenting on his study, Dr Black said:

“The main losers from a Hard Brexit will be those regions that voted most strongly to leave the EU. The fate of London and the South East will depend on the extent to which the trade in services continues to benefit from EU passporting rights. If this is restricted following a Hard Brexit, then London and the South East will also be significantly and negatively affected too.”

Commenting on his publication, Dr Blick said:

“The determination of the UK government to exclude the UK fully from the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union after departure is an important factor in negotiations with the EU27. In some analysis, if the UK was to display more flexibility on this point, more progress could be made and gains could be achieved for both sides. However, such arguments assume that the present UK approach is founded in rationality. In fact, the ‘leave’ project rests in other bases altogether, of which intransigent positions over issues such as parliamentary sovereignty and the Court are merely an outgrowth.”

For further information please ring Dr Andrew Black on 07500 742 206 and Dr Andrew Blick on 07939 042 650.

The studies will be discussed at a Federal Trust event on 4th December, 5.30pm in central London. For further details click here:

Notes for editors:

  1. The studies are published by The Federal Trust for Education & Research, 84 Moorgate, London EC2M 6SQ, T: 020 7320 1677.
  2. Dr Andrew Black, of Digit Ltd, is a Senior Research Fellow at the Global Policy Institute, London; and Visiting Research Fellow at the Brunel Business School, Brunel University.
  3. Dr Andrew Blick is a Lecturer in Politics and Contemporary History, King’s College London; and Senior Research Fellow at the Federal Trust.
  4. The studies are available online and in pdf format on the Federal Trust website:

Hard Brexit and the regions: (3 MB)

Brexit and the European Court of Justice:


If you wish to receive printed copies please contact Ulrike Rueb-Taylor on [email protected]