Director's Blog

The Anti-Brexit GNU: Essential, impossible, viable…?

by Brendan Donnelly
Director, The Federal Trust

12th August 2019

The arrival of Boris Johnson in Downing Street and the impending Article 50 deadline of 31st October have given a new sense of urgency to political players and observers, particularly among those opposed to Brexit. Specifically, it is increasingly accepted that if Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister on 31st October the UK will leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement; and that the most obvious way of preventing this will be to replace his government with another one. The hope has not been entirely abandoned that it may be possible by Parliamentary guerrilla warfare to prevent Johnson and his colleagues from crashing out of the EU with “no deal” at Halloween. But the political focus has now shifted towards the possibility of a Government of National Unity to seek at the very least an extension of the deadline for Brexit, a deadline which Johnson has staked his entire political credibility on meeting.

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Anti-Brexit forces have five weeks to decide on how to defeat ‘no deal’

by Brendan Donnelly
Director, The Federal Trust

30th July 2019

It was a disappointment to many that the Labour Party and those Conservative MPs opposed to a “no deal” Brexit did so little last week to oppose the installation of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. The summer recess will, however, allow both Labour and moderate Conservative MPs a pause for reflection on their best way forward. If they can use this for profitable discussion, it will not be too late for them to mount an effective campaign of resistance when Parliament reassembles in early September. The foundations of this resistance must, however, be laid in the coming month. Every wasted day that passes makes more likely a catastrophic “no deal” Brexit on 31st October.

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Brexit – By Royal Appointment?

by Dr Andrew Blick
Senior Lecturer in Politics and Contemporary History at King’s College London; Senior Research Fellow at the Federal Trust

12th July 2019

Uncertainty is a constant and deleterious feature of the Brexit experience. The prospect that the United Kingdom (UK) might – or might not – soon be leaving the European Union (EU), on terms and at a date that are uncertain, is a source of immense destabilisation. It has many manifestations, for instance in the realm of economics and trade. One area in which Brexit has both exposed and augmented ambiguity involves the rules according to which the political system itself functions: the constitution. It has created doubts about the place of the different components of the UK within the Union and the position of the devolved institutions. It has raised uncertainties about the future operation of the legal system; and about the relationship between the UK executive and the Westminster Parliament. The latest instalment in this prolonged period of systemic ambiguity and instability pertains to the tenure of prime ministers.

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The Brexit Revolution Eats Its Conservative Parents

by Brendan Donnelly
Director, The Federal Trust

9th July 2019

Much justified criticism has been heaped upon Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt for the unrealistic European policies they have promised the Conservative membership in the current leadership contest. It is not however always sufficiently understood how necessary such unrealistic promises are in order to win over the current Conservative membership; and how important these promises will be, once given, for the European policies pursued in government by Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt.

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After the fall: governing the UK in the post-May era

by Dr Andrew Blick
Senior Lecturer in Politics and Contemporary History at King’s College London; Senior Research Fellow at the Federal Trust

13th June 2019

By the end of July, at the latest, the Conservative Party will have a new leader. That person, it is widely assumed, will also be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (UK). Who they are and the terms on which they ascend to and exercise their office will have substantial consequences for the future of the UK and its relationship with the European Union (EU). The following paper considers the form which that leadership is likely to take and the implications from the perspective of Brexit. It then asks what constraints that new office-holder will be subject to. It considers the extent to which Parliament will be able to impose itself upon the government and achieve a different approach towards the EU, if it wishes. Finally, it discusses other means by which those within Parliament and beyond might try to alter the course taken by the UK under the successor to May.

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The European Elections: Signs of things to come for Brexit

by Brendan Donnelly
Director, The Federal Trust

31st May 2019

The European Elections mark an important watershed in the Brexit process. They show that the Conservative Party will never accept a negotiated Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union; made a General Election later this year considerably more likely; moved the Labour Party several steps along the road towards supporting a new European referendum; and give good hopes to campaigners for a People’s Vote that such a referendum can be won for “Remain.” None of these are happy outcomes for the departing Theresa May. It is easy to understand why she viewed with such horror the insistence of the European Council in March that European Elections should take place this year in the UK.

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After Theresa May the deluge

by Brendan Donnelly
Director, The Federal Trust

20th May 2019

Theresa May’s decision to hold a Parliamentary vote in the week beginning 3rd June on the Bill implementing the Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union will have two probable consequences. First, it will provide her with a brief respite after the (likely) catastrophic Conservative results in the European Elections. Last week, the executive of the powerful 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs agreed to wait upon the result of the Parliamentary vote before pressing further for the Prime Minister’s resignation.

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European Elections in the UK: A Brexit turning-point?

by Brendan Donnelly
Director, The Federal Trust

17th April 2019

It is easy to sympathise with last week’s reluctance of President Macron and other EU-27 leaders to endorse an extension of the Article 50 Brexit negotiations until the end of October 2019. There is a real chance that in six months the present bad-tempered and confused impasse in the House of Commons will still be in place. Brexit has created for the British political system a series of intractable dilemmas that will be no more attractive or easily resolved over the coming months than they are now.  The European Council of mid-October may be confronted with a very similar menu of Brexit options to those it considered last week.

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BREXIT AND PARLIAMENTARY ‘SOVEREIGNTY’

by Dr Andrew Blick

Senior Lecturer in Politics and Contemporary History at King’s College London; Senior Research Fellow at the Federal Trust

10th April 2019

Parliamentarians are seeking to exploit in the Brexit negotiations what they believe to be an incontrovertible, though normally only latent, power over the government. On Monday they passed the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 5) Bill 2017-19, which received Royal Assent and became the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2019. It was designed to force the government to seek an extension to Article 50, and to require parliamentary approval for the length of the delay requested by the government. The government was obliged by the Act, the day after it was passed, to table an amendable motion enabling the Commons to instruct it to seek an extension to a date of the Commons’ choosing. On Tuesday, the UK government obtained approval for its plan to seek an extension to 30 June. But is this legislation really the assertion of parliamentary authority it might seem to be? Continue reading BREXIT AND PARLIAMENTARY ‘SOVEREIGNTY’