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After the election comes the painful Brexit reality

After the election comes the painful Brexit reality

 

 

by Brendan Donnelly, Director, The Federal Trust

 

 

It should have come as little surprise that the election called by Mrs. May, supposedly to set the tone for the forthcoming Brexit negotiations, should have contained so little serious discussion of that crucial issue. Opinion polls have long demonstrated that the European Union is a matter of consuming interest only to a small portion of the electorate; the main party of opposition, the Labour Party, has naturally wished to focus its criticism of the government on policy areas in which the Conservative Party is generally regarded as weak, such as the welfare state; and the Liberal Democrats, who had entered the election campaign with high hopes of garnering an “anti-Brexit” electoral bonus, are still too politically enfeebled to be able to generate a European debate within the electoral campaign by their own efforts. It is not only Mrs. May’s European partners who are indifferent to her claim that a reinforced Parliamentary majority will help her in the Brexit negotiations. It appears the British electorate do not care much either. Continue reading After the election comes the painful Brexit reality →

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The Brexit election will not make Brexit easier for Mrs. May

The Brexit election will not make Brexit easier for Mrs. May

 

by Brendan Donnelly, Director, The Federal Trust

 

Announcing her decision to call for a general election in June, the Prime Minister claimed that “every vote for the Conservatives will make me stronger when I negotiate for Britain with … the European Union.”  Although she did not say so, Mrs. May reportedly also believes that an increased Parliamentary majority after the election will strengthen her hand in dealing with internal dissent on the European issue within her own party. Mrs. May’s hopes are likely to be disappointed in both cases. Continue reading The Brexit election will not make Brexit easier for Mrs. May →

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Pointless soft Brexit, suicidal hard Brexit

Pointless soft Brexit, suicidal hard Brexit

 

 

By Brendan Donnelly
Director, The Federal Trust

 

In a controversial article last week the associate editor of the Financial Times Wolfgang Muenchau asserted that after the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty it was now inevitable that the United Kingdom would leave the European Union. Those who had voted “remain” in last year’s referendum should renounce their anger at and resentment of the present government’s negotiating tactics. They could more usefully devote their energies to reappraising the unsuccessful arguments they had put forward in last year’s referendum. They could thus prepare themselves better for future debate about eventual British re-entry into the European Union.   Wolfgang Muenchau is a respected and influential commentator, but on this occasion his arguments are unpersuasive.  The fortnight since the triggering of Article 50 has shown with embarrassing clarity the frivolous and incoherent nature of the whole Brexit project. It is a strange conclusion to draw from these developments that the United Kingdom cannot in any circumstances abandon the self-damaging path on which the Conservative government, or more precisely a segment of this government’s supporters, have set themselves. Continue reading Pointless soft Brexit, suicidal hard Brexit →

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Article 50 and the dictatorship of the “democratic” majority

Article 50 and the dictatorship of the “democratic” majority

 

By Brendan Donnelly
Director, The Federal Trust

 

During the EU referendum of last year, there was much talk of the supposed estrangement between British voters and their political representatives. The narrow victory of the Brexit camp has since often been cited as proof of this estrangement, given that the overwhelming majority of Parliamentarians favoured remaining in the European Union. If there was indeed some gap of political preferences on the European issue between Parliamentarians and voters last year, this gap has now been replaced by another, more flagrant asymmetry. Voters wishing to leave the European Union may have been statistically underrepresented in Parliament in 2016, but those wishing to remain in the Union or to leave only on consensual terms are in 2017 deprived of any effective Parliamentary representation whatsoever. The Conservative government has met disturbingly little Parliamentary opposition in its chaotic course towards the most disruptive of Brexits. Almost without exception, Parliamentarians have allowed themselves to be cowed into submission by the novel and dangerous concept of the “popular will” supposedly manifested in the advisory referendum of 23rd June 2016. Continue reading Article 50 and the dictatorship of the “democratic” majority →

Blog, Europe

How long will Parliament ignore the 48% ?

How long will Parliament ignore the 48%?

 

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by Brendan Donnelly, Director, The Federal Trust

 

David Jones, the Minister for Brexit, assured the House of Commons this week that it would have the opportunity to vote on the treaty negotiated by Mrs. May’s government to bring about British withdrawal from the European Union. This assurance provoked mixed reactions. It helped to suppress a brewing Conservative revolt, but was widely criticized on the Opposition benches as giving no meaningful choice to the House of Commons, since the Minister had made clear that Brexit would anyway proceed, irrespective of the outcome of the Parliamentary vote. Both the welcome and the criticism for Mr. Jones were equally illuminating. Neither his supporters nor his critics seemed to recall that Parliament has the right to decide for itself whether it wishes to vote on the Brexit treaty and that it is up to Parliament to decide what the consequences of any such vote might be.  Parliament does not need to be dependent upon more or less tasty morsels from the governmental table furnished by Mr. Davis. The willingness of many Parliamentarians to subsist on a constitutional diet determined by the government well reflects the indecent haste with which they have rejected (at least for the short term) the chance offered it by the Supreme Court to play an autonomous role in the UK’s proposed withdrawal from the European Union. Continue reading How long will Parliament ignore the 48% ? →

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Ireland faces heavy costs for Britain’s Brexit folly

IRELAND FACES HEAVY COSTS FOR BRITAIN’S BREXIT FOLLY.

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By John Palmer

 

In the complex and sometimes arcane debate about the British government’s Brexit crusade, little attention has been paid to the consequences it will have for our neighbouring island, Ireland. In government circles there appears to date to be only limited awareness of the future implications the UK’s departure from the EU could have on future Anglo-Irish relations. Continue reading Ireland faces heavy costs for Britain’s Brexit folly →

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The Supremes say “Stop in the name of Parliament”

The Supremes say “Stop in the name of Parliament”

Brendan Donnelly

 

By Brendan Donnelly, Director, The Federal Trust

 

 

On general principles of good governance yesterday’s decision of the Supreme Court must be welcomed. Most Parliamentarians are profoundly uneasy at the erratic course Mrs. May and her government have steered over the past six months in response to the ill-defined outcome of the advisory European referendum on 23rd June. It was politically convenient for Mrs. May to claim to believe that a modern version of the divine right of kings dispensed her from the obligation to involve Parliament in these matters.  Happily, the Supreme Court has rejected such pretensions. Nevertheless, any pleasure at yesterday’s verdict must be tinged with disappointment that the Court needed to take such a decision in the first place. Continue reading The Supremes say “Stop in the name of Parliament” →

Blog, Europe

Mrs. May answers the questions with the worst possible answers

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by Brendan Donnelly, Director, The Federal Trust
17th January 2017

 

Mrs. May answers the questions with the worst possible answers

Mrs. May has answered many of the questions posed to her by commentators before her speech today. These answers provoke the further following reflections. Continue reading Mrs. May answers the questions with the worst possible answers →

Blog, Europe

Prime Minister’s Question Time on Europe

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By Brendan Donnelly, Director, The Federal Trust
16th January 2017

 

Prime Minister’s Question Time on Europe

In his farewell letter to his staff, the departing British Permanent Representative to the European Union, Sir Ivan Rogers, accused government ministers of “muddled thinking” about Brexit. In her speech on 17th January, Mrs. May will have the opportunity to rebut or reinforce this accusation. The following issues in particular need clarification. Continue reading Prime Minister’s Question Time on Europe →

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May’s Rocky Road Ahead: Why Brexit May Not Happen

op12In this article our director Brendan Donnelly argues that the triggering of Article 50 will not be the end of the Brexit story. Mrs May is likely to face over the next two years growing obstacles in her path of extricating the UK from the European Union. There is a chance that these obstacles could be so numerous and so severe as to prevent Brexit from happening altogether.

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