6 years ago I published a book “Brexit. How Britain Will Leave Europe.” It came out before the May 2015 election. It set out all the reasons, based on 20 years of door knocking in what we now call a red wall seat, why I thought that if a populist plebiscite on Europe were to be held the vote would be out.
After the defeat of Ed Miliband and the expulsion of the Lib Dems from politics in May 2015 the points were set for the Brexit referendum. Philip Hammond – remember him? – exulted that “Brexit would light a fire under Europe”, a curious metaphor as Europe celebrated the 70th anniversary of the end of five years of fire and nationalist hate which consumed Europe 1940-45.
I assumed there would be a serious adult response by Cameron, Labour, the economic and foreign policy world, to prevent the isolation and trade rupture of Brexit.
I was wrong. Bit by bit I felt like a Brexit Cassandra as all my friends in politics, journalism, think tanks, foreign policy wonks all patted me on the head and said it would never happen.
On the day of the referendum itself the academic Professor Anand Menon told me “I know the English Denis. They’ll bottle it. They’ll never dare vote to leave.”
Another respected friend, the pollster Peter Kellner, said the same on the day.
I am still at a loss as to how the great and the good who have such status and influence in our nation were so utterly wrong.
Endless books have been written and conferences held but no one has stepped up to say “I was wrong. I let the Trojan horse of Europhobia enter the gates of Britain without protesting or fighting back.”
I showed my book to Jim Naughtie who assured me it was worth an outing on Today. However, the programme’s then editor, a prominent Tory, who had turned the flagship current affairs programme into Radio Spectator, refused to have me on.
Just one journal, Standpoint, ran a piece by me saying Brexit would happen. The Guardian was full of comments by Sir Simon Jenkins or the Reverend Giles Fraser ranting against the EU or by Owen Jones arguing for “Lexit” – a left wing exit from Europe.
Two friends, Charles Grant, the veteran Europe watcher with his think tank the Centre for European Reform and John now Lord Monks, the former TUC general secretary, shared my fears.
But the overwhelming mass of the British establishment was complacent, blind and deaf to the views of the British people
As in 1939, the government had no idea of what to do or the need to mobilise effectively if Britain were to stay in Europe.
Business launched a campaign run by a shopkeeper which lacked drive, flair and relied on political dinosaurs.
Labour under a life-long anti-European advised by communist sympathisers dreaming of overturning the 1975 referendum result did nothing to mobilise such as remained of the left in Britain.
Today there are endless conference and BBC slots on the fifth anniversary of Brexit. Will any of the distinguished participants own up and admit their blindness and deafness and complacency in 2015-2016?
The problem the campaign had was falling into the trap set by the leave side of making it a binary issue which it clearly was not. For example, there was zero discussion of the effect it would have on English people resident on the mainland. In fact I am surprised that there hasn’t been a court case against the British government for abandoning its citizens who moved abroad legally and in good faith. They were never warned that the UK could violate its treaty obligations and leave the EU at any moment. Many have bought property and businesses on mainland Europe. What are they supposed to do. now? Also, they have lost their right to vote in local elections and since the British government doesn’t allow many of them to vote in their native country either they no longer have a right to vote in any election anywhere. They lost the right to reciprocal healthcare too (rather important I would say). There was actually a third option – again never discussed – that of doing something we have never been allowed to do which is becoming a proper member of the EU and that is probably why we never properly benefited from EU membership.
On both occasions – in 1975 and 2016 – referenda were misused to settle an internal party political dispute, without any regard for what was good for the country. Until we get a written constitution these abuses of power will continue and I blame all the post war leaders. When it was evident that Britain no longer had an empire they should have begun adapting the country to the rest of western Europe by building a road bridge across the channel, switching to driving on the right (Sweden did) and ditching our adversarial political system, among other things.
One of the problems s that the “working class” (ghastly expression) gradually came to see voting Tory as a sign that they’d moved up in the world”. If things were not perfect , then why not believe out awful nationalist press? They said it was always the fault of the EU, based in part on thew lies dreamed up by Boris Johnson, known by those of us accredited as journalists at the European Commission as the laziest man in Brussels. He seldom went to the daily briefings and distorted the news he picked up from his posh friends among us hacks, writing pure fiction to please his ultra-nationalist bosses. It was a poison he then passed off to the British public, keen to find hate figures to blame. Thus an idle liar, to please his far-right employers, helped lead the British people into economic catastrophe. Now he has filled the cabinet table with the most inept and foolish ministers this country has ever seen. The damage they have done as they strive to privatise everything to boost the profits of their wealthy friends is immeasurable. Today is a nightmare; tomorrow will be worse.